The outlook for MTBE in Asia, and for the rest of the world looks bright for the MTBE producers with supply is looking very tight and no new MTBE plants announced. The lack of capacity addition for MTBE makes it undersupplied for the rest of 2008 and 2009 supply demand balances.
MTBE is still considered environmentally unfriendly following the US concern due to leaks into groundwater system. MTBE is no longer a favourite blending stock in the US, Japan, Taiwan, New Zealand and Australia. MTBE usage as blending component for gasoline has been quickly replaced by other anti-knocking agent such as ethanol, another oxygenate for octane booster. Other popular blending components are toluene, xylenes, ETBE and TAME instead.
World Health Organization in its report has suggested that there has been insufficient evidence to classify MTBE as a carcinogen, but with global perception for MTBE remains, it is unlikely that the market outlook for MTBE will get anywhere in the balance area.
The wake of biofuels and ethanol production all around the world has even reduced the dependence on fossil fuels including MTBE. In Thailand for example, policy makers are curbing MTBE usage due to economic and political factors. Thailand advices the industry to use Gasohol - gasoline blended with 10% locally-produced ethanol.
The biggest hit is the petrochemical industry that uses MTBE as a feedstock such as methyl methacrylate or MMA producers. MMA monomers are transformed into transparent Polymethyl Methacrylate or PMMA which is a nice glass replacement, largely used for aquarium manufacturing. MTBE consumption in Asia's petrochemicals sector is expected to skyrocket with estimated over 200 ktpa capacity addition which would increase demand of MTBE in the region in 2008. The jump in demand comes from South Korea and Singapore.
With MTBE price skyrocketing, gasoline blenders in Asia are looking at other alternatives for gasoline blending, reducing the threat of high price. However, it seems that MMA producers are left with hand-tight.